3.7 million tons of Belarusian milk
TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION
It is worth remembering that the forecast balances is rather a reference and information guide to action, rather than strict to execution, up to a ton or a kilogram, manual. This approach helps the parties to forecast supply and demand, to plan imports and, having clear indicative indicators, more accurately calculate their own production. If there is overproduction in some segment – the laws of the market come into force, believe analysts of the agricultural departments of Russia and Belarus.
Initially, sources both in Russia and in Belarus noted that the new balances will reduce the volume of supplies of raw milk and slightly increase the volume of deliveries of finished products.
- As far as I know, a framework agreement has been signed. It does not give an understanding of what exactly and how much will be imported from the Republic of Belarus. There is no clear idea about the needs of our own food industries that use raw milk or other dairy products in their production, – commented member of the Agricultural Committee of the State Duma Arkady Ponomarev. The expert drew attention to the fact that such uncertainty in supplies could generate a new wave of mutual claims. In his opinion, the negative impact of Belarusian supplies on the price of Russian raw milk will remain.
Arkady Ponomarev stressed that in this situation it seems logical to import raw milk or raw materials such as butter and skim milk powder: they are easier to register and control. In addition, they can make a wide range of derivative products. Thus, support will be provided to domestic processing enterprises. To level the factor of seasonality in the domestic market, according to Ponomarev, deliveries should be distributed by months.
- Market mechanisms are agreements on mutual trade on a parity basis. But it is in the project. So far, neither the Russian nor the Belarusian party has an understanding of how to maintain parity, because the countries have different support mechanisms. Therefore quotas today is the most clear approach, - the parliamentarian concluded.
Indeed, some market participants negatively accepted the decision to increase the supply of finished products from Belarus. However, many people emphasize that the problem of supplies from Belarus is not the key one and first of all it is necessary to solve internal problems for the well-being of the industry. Most of the experts interviewed by The DairyNews agree that any imports should be clearly distributed by year and quota.
- We should always remember that the potential capacity of the dairy market in Russia is 147 million people, multiplied by the level of consumption of dairy products. The growth of demand for dairy products is possible only with the growth of the population and the growth of purchasing power. With a competent policy of the state and with the proper level of consumption of milk by the population, our farmers will be able to saturate the market on their own and very quickly, - said the Deputy Head of the Agrarian Committee of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Airat Khairullin. - In the near future, I believe that we will be able to increase the export of our meat, and our huge potential is in increasing the number of cows. But it is very expensive and risky. To make this happen, we need separate programs aimed at creation of production sites, reduction of costs, to ensure that promotion in the foreign markets was not only due to the efforts of business, to have public services available at all stages. If we ensure such stability in the country within 2-3 years, create production facilities, the dairy industry will become attractive for investment. This is a competent policy - it will relieve social tension: new jobs will be created, wages will be worthy. To this end, the state must ensure strict control over dairy products coming from abroad and maintain the established monthly quotas for imports. Only the missing volumes can be received from Belarus, and at prices not lower than the cost of production in our country. At the same time, it is necessary to use more widely the developed methodology for detecting milk powder in natural finished products and to monitor the quality of those products that are imported from abroad, to completely exclude the import of falsifications and surrogates.
At the same time, Airat Khairullin notes that "while there is a seasonal shortage of milk in Russia in autumn and winter, Belarusian colleagues can increase shipments of their products, but this should be done very carefully, without breaking the existing market.
- We have been talking for a long time about the fact that our shelves are open to high quality finished products from Belarus, but we have to be very careful with milk powder, butter and cheese, - concluded the Deputy.
Many regional producers do not consider Belarus a serious competitor of domestic suppliers of dairy products, largely due to the distance at which it is not profitable to deliver a significant range of import, and buyers still prefer domestic perishable products, focusing on the short shelf life.
THE NUMBERS AND VOLUMES
- We were reproached that we supply cheaper raw materials to the Russian market and therefore compete with raw milk producers in Russia. Now it turns out that Russian raw materials are a little more expensive than Belarusian. Thus, objectivity is on our side. But at the same time, within the framework of the last meeting with Russian colleagues and the development of balances for 2019, we declare that we heard each other and found harmony, - said recently the Head of the General Department of foreign economic activity of the Ministry of agriculture and food of the Republic of Belarus Alexey Bogdanov.
He specified that the Belarusian party will reduce the volume of supplies of food raw materials to Russia in the form of milk powder and concentrated milk, but will slightly increase the volume of deliveries of finished products. "These are cheeses, whole milk products, cottage cheese, yoghurts, kefir, sour cream, meat", listed the Head of the Department. At the same time, the balances envisage an increase of Russian food exports to Belarus.
The volume of deliveries of meat and meat products from the Republic of Belarus to Russia is agreed at the level of 320 thousand tons in 2019, or by 11% higher than in 2018, milk and dairy products - 3.71 million tons in terms of milk, which is 2.6% more.
The Head of the Ministry of agriculture of Belarus Leonid Zayats stressed that at the request of the Russian party Minsk has identified those enterprises that will supply these products in 2019. Additionally, the balances were distributed by range, so that in Belarus and Russia understood, how the deliveries will be carried out. All this will make the process manageable, believe in the departments of both countries.
Meanwhile, it should be noted that according to the Ministry of agriculture and food, over the past 1.5 years, about 1 million tons of milk have not been delivered to Russia according to the previously agreed balances.
In early October it became known that the Rosselkhoznadzor lifted restrictions on supplies from five Belarusian plants. According to the Department they are: the company "Molochny mir" (delivery of dairy products), Virovlyansky branch of the enterprise "Detskoselsky gorodok" (delivery of pasteurized milk in bulk), State Enterprise "Molochny gostinets" (delivery of dairy products), Minskiy dairy plant No. 1 (supply of drinking milk) and Stolbtsovskiy meat-packing plant (supply of beef). According to the report, this decision was made after negotiations with the Deputy Minister of agriculture and food of Belarus, Director of the Department of veterinary and food supervision Ivan Smilgin.
At the end of October, Viktor Nazarenko, member of the Board (Minister) for technical regulation of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), told the BelTA Agency about the mistakes made by the Rosselkhoznadzor in the application of the EAEU interstate standards to Belarusian dairy products, which led to the introduction of restrictions on supplies to Russia.
Viktor Nazarenko reminded that the Federal service for veterinary and phytosanitary supervision of Russia (Rosselkhoznadzor) has imposed temporary restrictions on Belarusian plants since July 16 due to repeated detection of nitrates in drinking milk.
- The Rosselkhoznadzor applied the interstate standard GOST 32257-2013 "Milk and dairy products. The method of determination of nitrates and nitrites", included in the list of standards for technical regulations for milk, - he explained. – The restrictions on supplies were introduced in connection with the non-compliance of products with the technical regulations of the Union "Safety requirements for food additives, flavorings and technological supporting means". According to the technical regulations on food additives, the use of preservatives in the production of milk is not allowed. This requirement excludes the possibility of using sodium nitrate (E251) and potassium nitrate (E252) as food additives with the technological function of "preservative" in the production of milk.
The Rosselkhoznadzor denied Nazarenko's statements and called them groundless.
- It should be noted that the norms of international and national legislation do not provide for the assessment of conformity of products on the basis of information about the possible natural content of preservatives in milk. On the territory of the EAEU and the Russian Federation there are no existing regulations providing for quantitatively permissible (native/background) content of preservatives in milk, including nitrates. However, the mandatory rules of the TR of the Union establish a ban on the use of preservatives in milk produced and in circulation in the customs territory of the EAEU. The task of the Rosselkhoznadzor is to carry out state supervision (control) of products coming to Russia, guided by the regulatory framework that constitutes the law of the EAEU and the Russian Federation in the established field of activity. In this regard, the Rosselkhoznadzor conducts research and assessment of compliance of dairy products, including those produced in the Republic of Belarus, in strict accordance with the legally established procedures and norms of the Eurasian Economic Union and the TR of the Union, the Ministry stressed.
The Rosselkhoznadzor has not yet given a clear answer on the situation with the opening of Belarusian enterprises, saying that the claims against them remain. However, the Belarusian Agrarian Department hopes that the issue will be resolved in November.
- There are common rules for both parties. There are technical regulations. They must be strictly enforced. There are road maps, they are filled, but we move slowly in accordance with these road maps, - Leonid Zayats noted. - We agreed that by the end of the year the entire volume of products undersupplied by our balances for the current year will be regulated and delivered. We prepare proposals by the types and those enterprises that will provide this volume. This is about 320 thousand tons in terms of milk.
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