Alexander Bulat: in June, prices for raw milk will be 10-15% lower than the current level
- Having observed the dairy market for more than 20 years, I can say with confidence that due to its multi-vector nature, it is almost unpredictable! And this year, another powerful factor has been added - the viral epidemic. Nevertheless, we can try to guess what awaits us in the summer and autumn of 2020, - the expert expressed his opinion. He stressed that first of all, the Russian market is interconnected with the world and Belarusian markets. At present, there are processes conditionally multidirectional: since January 2020 world prices for milk powder decreased by 15% from 3 to 2.5 dollars per kg, and Belarus raised the indicative prices by 10%, although in rubles. But this happened even before the pandemic began to affect the situation.
According to the analyst, raw material prices in Russia are still declining at a seasonally planned pace without pressure from the viral situation. This is due to the fact that when cheese consumption decreases, producers redirect raw materials to drying, and prices for milk powder and butter in Russia remain high. However, the general reorientation of producers to drying will lead to lower prices for these products.
I estimate that by the end of June, raw milk prices will be 10-15% lower than the current level. Moreover, the desire of milk producers to raise prices in autumn will run into a lack of demand, - said Alexander Bulat. - I think that the prospects for reducing the income of the Russian population are obvious to everyone. This will lead to an expansion of the line of cheap "analog" products, which in turn will push down the price of milk fat. If we talk about possible support for the industry, I think that there will be no additional measures. The main measure is to stimulate demand! - summed up the expert.
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