Alexey Lysyakov: due to the decrease in the birth rate, the market for breast milk substitutes will be greatly reduced in the coming years

He noted that today, in connection with import substitution, the Nestle project for the construction of a full-cycle plant with a capacity of 20 thousand tons of products per year was announced on the market of breast milk substitutes. According to him, this was announced in August, so the launch of production is planned no earlier than in a year and a half. The expert also told about the project of Infaprim to modernize the plant and to increase its capacity up to 15 thousand tons. Its representatives have received a construction permit and are coming to the site next month.

- There is another project related to the company United Green, but I do not know its status. In my opinion, the economic justifications proposed for this project are profanation. Its existence seems utopian to me. In the case of Nestle, it is quite easy to explain how they implement their plans, and as for United Green, if it wants to invest in some circumstances, I have no idea how it will do it, Alexey Lysyakov said.

According to the expert, there is another company in Russia that is theoretically capable of producing breast milk substitutes. It is Pharmalact. However, the volume of its production is still very small. According to Alexey Lysyakova, Pharmalact is not working at full capacity and cannot sell even 500 tons per year.

Today there are two actual manufacturers of a full cycle: Infaprim and Pharmalact. Now, the total market capacity is 35 thousand tons. At the same time, Infaprim occupies about 7% of the market, Pharmalact - about 0.2%, and the rest is imported.

Alexey Lysyakov said that in Russia there is a small amount of D90 whey. We can say that its production is carried out as an experiment. It is also produced at the Agrocomplex named after N. I. Tkachev.

-For example, we need 180 tons of whey per month for our production volume. Last month, we bought 20 tons fr om Agrocomplex. That is, they barely cover 10% of production. We continue to work with them, try to establish the process, but for this they need to add some equipment, - said the Chairman of the Board of Directors of JSC Infaprim.

The expert also spoke about the plans of Infaprim for the near future, noting that the company's priority is the further development of its own production.

- We understand what is happening now with the birth rate and that the market for breast milk substitutes will be greatly reduced in the coming years. If earlier it was 40 thousand tons, now it is no more than 32 thousand tons. I think, further it will be 25 thousand tons, maybe 28. However, this is a distribution for all market participants. Who will stay, what will happen - is still unknown, - said Alexey Lysyakov.

The expert reported on the problems of the industry related to the import of D90 whey. After the embargo, European whey was banned from being supplied. Despite this, in April 2020, a Government decree was issued allowing the import of this component by Infaprim until December 2020.

-The only reason why we were allowed to carry out this activity only until December was Stefan Duerr's promise to former Deputy Prime Minister Gordeev to launch a plant in December 2020 wh ere D90 whey will be produced. The permission of the government was greatly prolonged, so we did not import anything and will not import anything until December. That is, many years of people's work to prove the failure of such a system was in vain. However, the plant was never launched. Moreover, most likely will not be launched in the coming years. This slows down our production, - said Chairman of the Board of Directors of JSC Infaprim Alexey Lysakov.

He noted that if EkoNiva is still able to launch the plant, the company Infaprim might think on further cooperation. However, according to the expert, in order to produce whey, you first need to sell cheese. Alexey Lysyakov, does not understand how in modern economic conditions the company EkoNiva is going to sell it, if the dairy market is already highly competitive and full of cheese.

- So, the fate of the Novosibirsk plant is obvious. It was supposed to be launched in December of this year. However, there is no factory or even equipment yet. Therefore, whether it will appear is a very big question. Yes, there are technologists who can produce the whey. You must just want to do it. I think they will produce a decent quality product when they have a factory. However, when they will have it, it is still unknown, - the expert said.

We will remind that the company Sibirskaya Niva (part of EkoNiva-APK holding) has postponed the launch of a feed mill in Maslyanino district of Novosibirsk region to mid-2021 due to the pandemic. We wrote about this earlier.

Alexey Lysakov also commented on the fact that producers consider China to be the most popular market to imports. He noted that if the factory produces high-quality whey, it could be sold to China without any problems. This is a decent market for buying whey, as it is a strategic product for them. According to the expert, China solves the same problem as in Russia: they need to provide themselves with breast milk substitutes.

- Unlike us, they will be able to solve this issue, despite the fact that they had a big scandal and Chinese mothers have reduced purchases of breast milk substitutes from local manufacturers and prefer imported ones. In general, high-quality whey is a popular product in many countries: for example, in Pakistan and India. It seems to me that from the point of view of entrepreneurship, the export of whey suitable for breast milk substitutes is a good business, concluded Alexey Lysyakov.

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