Andrew Dvoychenkov: the current crisis is not a short term change in the weather
The lockout in the UAE, where Nielsen's Middle East office is located, was very strict. The authorities have introduced quotas for visiting public places, such as shops, pharmacies, etc. In case of violation of the instructions of the authorities, you could expect a significant fine, said the expert.
The business reaction to the long-term lockout is about the same everywhere, said a Nielsen representative.
"I believe that the current situation is a "climate change" that will seriously affect the consumer, manufacturer and retailer in the long term. If a business tries to wait it out, it is a wrong decision. Because opportunities emerging in the crisis are huge", said Andrew Dvoychenkov.
The analyst named several scenarios for the development of the FMCG market.
"The first scenario implies an acceleration of the pandemic. In this case, it will capture most of the population and countries. The second scenario implies a certain opening of business activity - shops, cinemas, swimming pools, beaches, and so on. At the same time, the risk will remain, as well as some restrictions for people, and all this will be until scientists find a vaccine. From our point of view, the vaccine will not be found until the third quarter of 2021", said Andrey Dvoychenkov.
The third scenario, according to the expert, implies that the virus will disappear on its own. He reminded that there was a theory about the death of the virus from a temperature of more than 50 degrees.
"Today, the number of COVID-19 cases in the UAE is growing by 5-10% daily. The air temperature in the sun for the last 4-5 weeks has been around 50 degrees", the expert stressed.
"The next scenario involves instant or accidental finding of the vaccine. But it is unlikely. We are of the opinion that the most obvious scenario is a mixed one. Many countries are following it now, including the United Arab Emirates, where a few days ago they opened a number of public places while maintaining social distance", the analyst said.
Цитаты дня
