May milk for export?
According to estimates of the Ministry of agriculture, the target dynamics of export of dairy products involves the growth of export category outside the Russian Federation to 1.8 million tons (in terms of raw milk) by 2024. According to data of 2017, the export amounted to 700 thousand tons. From 2017 to 2024, the export of dairy products will grow by 15%. At the same time, the value of export of the dairy category will grow at a slower pace and will amount to about $ 0.8 billion by 2024, predict the analysts of the Federal Agrarian Department.
It should be noted that the decree of the President envisages the export of goods of non — primary sectors in the amount of $250 billion a year, including engineering — $50 billion, agriculture — $45 billion, services - $100 billion a year by 2024.
According to experts, in terms of non-primary agricultural products, these goals are feasible, but have to be adjusted within 2-5 years. Despite this, the authorities, including regional ones, are actively aimed at supporting deep processing of agricultural raw materials and the development of export of agricultural products.
The DairyNews learned, what the participants of the dairy market and analysts they think about it.
According to the Russian export center (REC), this year the export of agricultural products and food demonstrates positive dynamics. During the first half of the year it amounted to $10.3 billion (an increase of 30.5%). Among the export commodity groups are vegetable oils, chocolate products, meat and by-products, beverages and flour products. Russia also exports wheat, fish, animal feed. The main export directions are the CIS countries, the Middle East and East Asia.
Russia is one of the leaders in the supply of vegetable oil, as for soybean and rapeseed oils Russia is among the top ten world exporters, supplying them to China, Europe and North Africa. For the supply of packaged tea, chocolate and margarine, our country is also in the top ten. Chocolate is actively bought in China and the Persian Gulf countries.
In 2016-2017, Russia exported a record 35.5 million tons of grain, including 27.1 million tons of wheat, losing the export competition only to the United States.
- We expect to increase the production of deep processing products, thereby increasing the cost of agricultural export, - said in a comment Director of the REC group to support the export of agro-industrial complex Ruslan Tsargush to The DairyNews.
According to the expert, the main obstacles to the expansion of agricultural export are trade barriers.
- First of all, it should be noted that Russia is an importer of dairy products, in particular, from Belarus. At the same time, due to high quality Russian dairy products are competitive in certain commodity items and are gaining foreign markets. A good example is the supply of Russian ice cream to China. Of course, the growth of export depends on the technological modernization of milk processing industries, increasing investment in this sector, the availability of credit resources, - said the expert of the REC, answering the question about the prospects of export of the dairy category.
Olga Panova, head of the national program "School milk" in Russia stressed that in her opinion, it is too early to talk about the development of export of dairy products. The reasons for this are the problems of the domestic market.
Today we can talk about the emerging positive trends in the industry, the expert said. However, there are still many issues that pose potential risks for the future successful development of the dairy industry. One of them is the presence of falsification in the dairy market. Let's put things in order here, otherwise it may happen that we will send good milk for export, and then there is a logical question arises "What will remain for us and our children?" Olga Panova asks.
- The question of the quality of food for children is very acute today. With the quality of food that is now, we take 3.5 years of life from our children, and if it goes on, we can reach a situation where the average life expectancy will be like that of primitive people, no more than 30 years. That is why it is important to stimulate the growth of consumption of milk and dairy products. The program “School milk” helps to preserve the tradition of milk consumption. In the regions where the Program is implemented, milk consumption is on average 10% higher than the average consumption in Russia. Therefore, I believe that today it is too early to talk about the growth of export. It is important to ensure the balance of production and consumption on the Russian dairy market, it will ensure its stability and development, - summed up Olga Panova.
According to the Ministry of agriculture, priority areas for export of dairy products are China, South East Asia, CIS countries and Middle East.
The Chinese market, which is quite attractive and developed by European and Belarusian enterprises, is still closed to Russia. Ice cream in this regard is an exception, as according to the Chinese accreditation system it is not a dairy product.
According to estimates of the FCS and Soyuzmoloko, the largest share of dairy products in the structure of milk exports today is 23%. 16% is the share of cheese and cottage cheese, 10% respectively falls on cheese products, as well as drinking milk and cream.
The Ministry of agriculture expects that the export of cheese products will be reduced to zero by 2024. However, not all experts have the same opinion. Today it is one of the most promising categories, analysts say. By 2024, it is also planned to increase the share of exports of fermented dairy products to 25%, cheese and cottage cheese to 21%, condensed and powdered milk and cream to 18% (today their share is 9%).
- Under today's conditions, the issue of supplies abroad is quite relevant. In Udmurtia, a draft program for the export of agricultural products has been developed. This is necessary in order to increase production volume and develop agricultural production. Our Republic produces much more milk than it consumes. For us, there are only two options to develop the situation: either to increase production and look for new markets, or to stop development and fix production at the level of 750 thousand tons of milk per year. We have taken the first path, as we intend to develop dairy production, because it includes the development of rural areas. Export for us is an opportunity to develop the local agro-industry, - said Olga Abramova, Head of the Ministry of agriculture of Udmurtia.
By the way, Dmitry Patrushev, Minister of agriculture of the Russian Federation believes that Russia will provide itself with milk in 6-8 years.
The export in the dairy category should be treated very thoughtfully and carefully, believe market participants.
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