Mikhail Mishchenko: The decline of the Russian population will seriously affect the dynamics of consumption of dairy products
‘The red line in the figure is the official forecast of the population dynamics of the Russian Federation, and the green line is the updated data of last week. By the end of 2022, the population will decrease by 1 million people. This suggests that consumption will not grow,’ Mikhail Mishchenko commented on the dynamics of indicators. ‘Production volumes are growing; new plants have been laid and are being opened. Moreover, even if we assume that per capita demand will grow, most likely, it will be offset by population decline.
According to the expert, the pace is quite serious and this is a very big problem for a number of regions where negative population dynamics is recorded. This can be said about many regions of Siberia, in particular about Altai region.
Therefore, in the most optimistic scenario, according to Mikhail Mishchenko, since 2026 the consumer market will still face organic growth.
With a pessimistic forecast, a decrease in effective demand, the development of demand and consumption of alternative and artificial milk is expected on the market.
The expert concluded that all forecasts for production volumes show that surplus milk is growing in Russia - even at the most modest growth rates. And the way out here is the development of exports.
Н Earlier, The DairyNews, with reference to Mikhail Mishchenko, reported that the traditionally cheese area of Altai region may soon turn into a meat region due to an overabundance of cheese and a lack of population.
Цитаты дня
