Russian import decrease in 2015 may reach 15% to two times – experts
Devaluation of the Russian ruble will result in import decrease in 2015, believe market experts. The decrease may reach 15% - two times.
Aleksandr Knobel, Director of the Center for Research on International Trade at Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, forecasts 1.5-2 times import decrease in 2015 in case the ruble keeps its current exchange value.
More optimistic forecast gives Yelena Abramova from Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting. She believes import will decrease by 15-20% in case the current year situation (ruble exchange value and sanctions) are kept. Import fall at year end may reach 8%, she added.
Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the Higher School of Economics' Center for Business Tendencies Studies, commenting the situation said that ruble is not weak enough yet for the economy to launch the process of import substitution. This process starts working when ruble “loses” 50-60%. The expert doesn’t expect Russian import to decrease sharply in 2015.
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