The growth of milk production will depend on the established export channels - Mikhail Mishchenko

‘Prices for raw milk in 2021 are consistently high, this is due to a number of factors, the main of which is high global milk prices. Since Russia is an import-dependent country, the deficit was 4 million tons last year; we are very seriously dependent on food prices in the world. The DIA Expert Council is confident that the growth rate of milk production in Russia at the level at which it has been maintained for the last five years will not be repeated in subsequent years. The growth rate will remain either at the level of global dynamics 1.5-2% per year or lower - from 0.5% to 1.5%. There is, of course, a negative scenario, according to which milk production will decrease in the country. But I think that the development of the situation will be influenced by the ability of the Russian Federation to export,’ said Mikhail Mishchenko. 

The expert reminded that overproduction in the coming years, due to the stagnation of demand and a decrease in the population, will require established export channels.

"If we do not establish them, then production will not grow,’ the analyst stressed.

We remind that Dairy Index DIA is still at the level of 29 rubles/kg (excluding VAT, fat - 3.6%, protein - 3.0%), which is 8.7% higher than in late June 2020. According to the Index DIA application, the key factor determining the dynamics of the index, the weighted average price of milk in Russia, remained at the level of last week. The import price decreased slightly due to lower prices for exchange-traded dairy products and the strengthening of the ruble.