The situation with consumption will determine the development of the dairy market in 2020-2021

Despite the fact that the growth rate of milk production in 2019 slowed (on average, until 2019, production grew by 2.3% per year), in the world excluding India and Pakistan, the figure increased by 1.4% to 891 million tons, mainly due to not very favorable weather conditions in South Asia, Oceania and Africa, as well as due to the economic problems of farmers in Latin America.

The growth of milk production in India also slowed in 2019, according to IFCN data, it was only 1.6%. The EU-28 increased milk production by 1.6% in 2019, the US increased production by 1.4%.

The average price of milk in the world according to IFCN calculations in 2019 was 37.3 dollars per 100 kg (+5.9% growth compared to 2018).

International trade in the dairy market grew by 3.3%, the largest increase in exports was observed from the European Union (+9.5%), but East and South-East Asia also increase exports +8% in 2019.

The growth rate of milk consumption per capita slowed to 1.5% last year, the trend of growth in butter consumption has exhausted itself, Asia has accumulated reserves, and consumption of drinking milk is falling in Western countries. At the same time, the consumption of vegetable milk increases.

IFCN experts identify three scenarios for the development of events in the market, but adhere to the middle, moderate option. The key factor that will determine the development of the dairy market in 2020-2021 is consumption, and this is not clear yet, since the depth of the consequences of the current crisis is not clear until the end, note in the IFCN.