When the milk gets dry
Источник: The DairyNews
In the situation of falling prices for milk powder there was found the main culprit – cheap milk powder. The market started talking about the ban on the supply of milk powder from Belarus, which has already decreased by the end of 2017. The DairyNews tries to make the situation clear.
Shortly after the Head of the Republic of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov asked the Head of the government of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev to investigate the situation with milk powder; in the regional media there appeared the statement of the Governor of Kaluga region Anatoly Artamonov on a planned ban on imports of this product from Belarus.
It is difficult to say how this cheap product comes from Belarus (excluding smuggling), but earlier Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Belarus Mikhail Rusy stressed during the IX Congress of Soyuzmoloko that the authorities of the Republic are fighting hard with smuggling and falsification, up to the complete confiscation of property. "You say that milk powder is a cheap product? How much milk do you need to get milk powder? We are building our strategy so that milk powder is made under the order. We are ready to produce high quality marginal product. As for the falsification - I sign with both hands under each word of Alexander Tkachev, who spoke earlier," - said Rusy.
Milk processors note the global trend of declining prices for commodities. "By mid-January 2018, skimmed milk powder lost more than 30% in price, butter – 25%, cheese — 11%, whole milk powder – 8%. In the end, it all led to the fall of purchasing prices for milk", - said General Director MC "ZMK" Arthur Yegorov. Should we blame Belarusians in the supply of milk powder to Tatarstan? The region is far away, it is provided with its own raw materials and has a number of strong players. According to analysts, the situation in Russia as a whole and in Tatarstan is explained by a set of factors, to the results of which not everybody was ready.
"If the supply of milk powder from Belarus is limited, in Russia there will be formed a deficit and this will give an opportunity to domestic enterprises. Currently, Russian enterprises have large stocks of milk powder in warehouses. There are surpluses and if Belarus is closed, it will spur the market in a positive way. Belarus has reduced exports to Russia, but Russia is still the largest buyer. In case of a complete closure, their market will seriously drop in price, and in the end, this price may affect the price in Russia in the future," - said the General Director of the Russian Dairy Research Center (RDRC) Mikhail Mishchenko.
He stressed that there is another side of the issue - Belarusian enterprises will simply stop drying and will supply milk in the form of other products.
According to Alexey Bogdanov, Head of the Chief Department of the foreign affairs of the Ministry of agriculture and food of the Republic of Belarus, in 2017 enterprises of the Ministry of agriculture and food of Belarus increased exports by 3.9% to $2.4 billion, the share of exports to Russia decreased to 89.4%.
"Many people note the problem that Belarus is independent from one market (...), but the explanation is simple. First of all, it is the proximity of the Russian market and its capacity", - said the representative of the Ministry of agriculture and food in an interview with Interfax. He also pointed to the high level of loyalty to the Belarusian goods on the Russian market.
"At the same time, we are trying to diversify and reduce the percentage of dependence on one market, and it is gradually becoming possible. At the end of the year, the share of the Russian Federation in total exports of our agricultural products decreased by 4.9 percent points to 89.4%," – added Alexey Bogdanov.
According to the Ministry of agriculture and food of the Republic of Belarus, the second largest buyer of Belarusian products by the results of last year is Kazakhstan ($72 million), the third - Ukraine ($38 million), where the supply increased by 32% compared to the level of 2016.
Meanwhile, closing the supply of milk powder from Belarus is really beneficial to the Russian drying industry. Stock balances at the enterprises of the Russian Federation exceed 30 thousand tons.
"We calculated the stock balances at the end of September 2017. There is 30 thousand tons, which is 147% more than in the same period of 2016. In 2017 we produced 25-26% more milk powder, than in 2016, and there is 220% more remained in warehouses than a year earlier. 30 thousand tons of milk powder, 30 thousand tons of cheese, and 15 thousand tons of butter. I. e., what we have increased in the production of milk - we put in the warehouse", - said Andrey Yarovoy, a member of the Board of Meleuzovsky concentrated milk factory, stressing that the growth of stock balances in Russia always leads to slaughtering of the herd.
Meanwhile, according to the Russian Dairy Research Center, in 2017 the supply of skimmed milk powder from Belarus to Russia decreased – in January-November there was delivered 93.2 thousand tons (instead of 101.5 thousand tons a year earlier). Imports of whole milk powder decreased even more significantly - from 22.3 thousand tons in January-November 2016 to 2.1 thousand tons in January-November 2017. The supply of whey powder decreased – 46 thousand tons for 11 months of 2017 instead of 61 thousand tons in the same period of 2016.
In Tatarstan, for example, the structure of processing facilities has changed significantly over the past year. According to the Head of the Republic, "over the past years, due to the bankruptcy of "Vamin" (the largest agricultural holding in Tatarstan), a number of enterprises were optimized, their modernization was not carried out, technological equipment remained weak, and farms were forced to export a significant part of their milk outside the Republic. New investors have been found for most dairy plants, but "the issues of their technological modernization with access to the processing capacity of all milk from the Republic will take time".
Will Belarus be closed? Experts agree that it will happen, but for how long and in what volumes and will the import of all milk powder be closed? By the beginning of the season of "high milk" the greatest activity from Supervisory agencies of the Russian Federation to the Belarusian enterprises is probable. However, it is worth remembering that at present not all Belarusian plants carry out free deliveries of dairy products to Russia.
Read full article in Russian on DairyNews.ru
It is difficult to say how this cheap product comes from Belarus (excluding smuggling), but earlier Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Belarus Mikhail Rusy stressed during the IX Congress of Soyuzmoloko that the authorities of the Republic are fighting hard with smuggling and falsification, up to the complete confiscation of property. "You say that milk powder is a cheap product? How much milk do you need to get milk powder? We are building our strategy so that milk powder is made under the order. We are ready to produce high quality marginal product. As for the falsification - I sign with both hands under each word of Alexander Tkachev, who spoke earlier," - said Rusy.
Milk processors note the global trend of declining prices for commodities. "By mid-January 2018, skimmed milk powder lost more than 30% in price, butter – 25%, cheese — 11%, whole milk powder – 8%. In the end, it all led to the fall of purchasing prices for milk", - said General Director MC "ZMK" Arthur Yegorov. Should we blame Belarusians in the supply of milk powder to Tatarstan? The region is far away, it is provided with its own raw materials and has a number of strong players. According to analysts, the situation in Russia as a whole and in Tatarstan is explained by a set of factors, to the results of which not everybody was ready.
"If the supply of milk powder from Belarus is limited, in Russia there will be formed a deficit and this will give an opportunity to domestic enterprises. Currently, Russian enterprises have large stocks of milk powder in warehouses. There are surpluses and if Belarus is closed, it will spur the market in a positive way. Belarus has reduced exports to Russia, but Russia is still the largest buyer. In case of a complete closure, their market will seriously drop in price, and in the end, this price may affect the price in Russia in the future," - said the General Director of the Russian Dairy Research Center (RDRC) Mikhail Mishchenko.
He stressed that there is another side of the issue - Belarusian enterprises will simply stop drying and will supply milk in the form of other products.
According to Alexey Bogdanov, Head of the Chief Department of the foreign affairs of the Ministry of agriculture and food of the Republic of Belarus, in 2017 enterprises of the Ministry of agriculture and food of Belarus increased exports by 3.9% to $2.4 billion, the share of exports to Russia decreased to 89.4%.
"Many people note the problem that Belarus is independent from one market (...), but the explanation is simple. First of all, it is the proximity of the Russian market and its capacity", - said the representative of the Ministry of agriculture and food in an interview with Interfax. He also pointed to the high level of loyalty to the Belarusian goods on the Russian market.
"At the same time, we are trying to diversify and reduce the percentage of dependence on one market, and it is gradually becoming possible. At the end of the year, the share of the Russian Federation in total exports of our agricultural products decreased by 4.9 percent points to 89.4%," – added Alexey Bogdanov.
According to the Ministry of agriculture and food of the Republic of Belarus, the second largest buyer of Belarusian products by the results of last year is Kazakhstan ($72 million), the third - Ukraine ($38 million), where the supply increased by 32% compared to the level of 2016.
Meanwhile, closing the supply of milk powder from Belarus is really beneficial to the Russian drying industry. Stock balances at the enterprises of the Russian Federation exceed 30 thousand tons.
"We calculated the stock balances at the end of September 2017. There is 30 thousand tons, which is 147% more than in the same period of 2016. In 2017 we produced 25-26% more milk powder, than in 2016, and there is 220% more remained in warehouses than a year earlier. 30 thousand tons of milk powder, 30 thousand tons of cheese, and 15 thousand tons of butter. I. e., what we have increased in the production of milk - we put in the warehouse", - said Andrey Yarovoy, a member of the Board of Meleuzovsky concentrated milk factory, stressing that the growth of stock balances in Russia always leads to slaughtering of the herd.
Meanwhile, according to the Russian Dairy Research Center, in 2017 the supply of skimmed milk powder from Belarus to Russia decreased – in January-November there was delivered 93.2 thousand tons (instead of 101.5 thousand tons a year earlier). Imports of whole milk powder decreased even more significantly - from 22.3 thousand tons in January-November 2016 to 2.1 thousand tons in January-November 2017. The supply of whey powder decreased – 46 thousand tons for 11 months of 2017 instead of 61 thousand tons in the same period of 2016.
In Tatarstan, for example, the structure of processing facilities has changed significantly over the past year. According to the Head of the Republic, "over the past years, due to the bankruptcy of "Vamin" (the largest agricultural holding in Tatarstan), a number of enterprises were optimized, their modernization was not carried out, technological equipment remained weak, and farms were forced to export a significant part of their milk outside the Republic. New investors have been found for most dairy plants, but "the issues of their technological modernization with access to the processing capacity of all milk from the Republic will take time".
Will Belarus be closed? Experts agree that it will happen, but for how long and in what volumes and will the import of all milk powder be closed? By the beginning of the season of "high milk" the greatest activity from Supervisory agencies of the Russian Federation to the Belarusian enterprises is probable. However, it is worth remembering that at present not all Belarusian plants carry out free deliveries of dairy products to Russia.
Read full article in Russian on DairyNews.ru
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